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Fractional Kelly Calculator with Allocation Cap

Calculate an allocation from a deliberately simple binary payoff model, then reduce it with a fractional Kelly multiplier and an explicit maximum allocation. Inputs are your estimated win probability, positive net win in R units and positive net loss magnitude in R units. Those payoffs must already reflect costs. The calculation runs in your browser and connects to no account or exchange API. It assigns zero when the modeled edge is nonpositive, while leaving the reliability of your probability and payoff assumptions open to inspection.

Explicit assumptionsFormula & methodology includedNo account required

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Worked example — illustrative data
Unconstrained full Kelly fraction17.5%
Capped fractional allocation4.38%
Equity allocated$437.50
Modeled equity loss on one loss$437.50
Expected net payoff per unit0.35
Full Kelly equity fraction = [p × win payoff − (1 − p) × loss payoff] / (win payoff × loss payoff). Apply fractional multiplier, cap and loss-feasibility bound.

Binary outcomes with known constant probabilities and net payoffs. Inputs are assumptions, not estimates of edge. A non-positive edge produces zero allocation. This is the capital fraction scaling payoffs, not automatically a stop-risk percentage. Fees belong in the net payoffs.

Define allocation and risk consistently

Let p be win probability, a the positive net win multiplier and b the positive net loss multiplier. Allocating fraction f of equity to this payoff changes wealth by 1 + f × a on a win or 1 − f × b on a loss. The unconstrained binary Kelly fraction is [p × a − (1 − p) × b] ÷ (a × b). This is the allocation fraction under those multipliers, not automatically the percentage of equity lost at a stop.

Apply the fraction and the cap

The selected Kelly multiplier scales a positive theoretical allocation before the maximum allocation cap is applied. For example, a half Kelly setting uses half the calculated fraction, subject to the cap. A nonpositive modeled expected payoff produces zero allocation. The modeled loss at the chosen allocation is f × b of equity; the calculator additionally bounds allocation below 1 ÷ b to preserve positive wealth in the loss outcome. Fees should be reflected in both net outcomes rather than subtracted from the final percentage afterward.

Test estimation uncertainty

Kelly optimization targets expected logarithmic growth in a repeated model with known probabilities. Your estimated win rate and payoff averages are not known constants. A small change in either can materially change the allocation, especially near zero edge. Check weaker probabilities, smaller wins and larger losses before interpreting the output. A cap limits the displayed allocation, but it does not account for correlated positions, exchange liquidation, sudden price gaps or an incorrect trade model. Fractional sizing reduces exposure without making an uncertain estimate accurate.

Your research workspace

Save selected inputs and research notes explicitly in this browser. Compare assumptions and restore a saved setup without submitting a trade. JavaScript enables the controls.

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