Model and input conventions
Multiply signed integer contract count by the fixed settlement-coin multiplier and by exit reference price minus entry reference price. Subtract costs denominated in that coin. Only then multiply the coin amount by its scenario USD valuation. The multiplier unit is settlement coin per contract per one USD point of reference-price movement. It must come from the actual contract specification, not from the settlement coin’s current exchange rate.
Worked numerical example
For 1,000 long contracts, a multiplier of 0.000001 coin per USD point, and a reference move from 2,000 to 2,200, gross P&L is 0.20 coin. Costs of 0.0001 leave 0.1999 coin. At a settlement-coin price of 50,000 USD, that amount is 9,995 USD. At 25,000 USD it is 4,997.50, even though the reference move and coin P&L have not changed.
Read the scenario table
The nine-row table varies reference exit price and settlement-coin valuation independently. Compare rows with a common reference price to isolate currency conversion, then rows with a common settlement price to isolate contract exposure. This grid makes clear why a favorable reference move alone does not fix the final USD result. It assigns no probabilities to joint moves and assumes neither price is an executable quote.
Where the model stops
The two-price sensitivity is a payoff calculation, not a quanto option valuation or a model of correlations between assets. Funding, collateral revaluation, maintenance margin and liquidation are omitted. The multiplier stays constant throughout the scenario. Negative contract count reverses directional payoff, but fixed coin costs remain deducted. A different exchange may define its reference price, multiplier scaling or settlement currency differently.