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Staking economics

LST Exchange Rate and Market Discount Attribution

A liquid staking token can change in value because the underlying asset moves, its conversion rate changes, or its market price diverges from the implied backing. This model separates those contributions while holding the number of LST units constant. The waterfall makes clear why an increasing underlying-per-token rate can coexist with a disappointing marked result in the chosen valuation currency.

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Formula and accounting assumptions

Marked value equals LST quantity × underlying units per LST × underlying USD price × (1 − market discount). Starting from the initial value, change the underlying price first, then the conversion rate, then the market discount. Each step's difference is one contribution. The order assigns interaction effects to later steps; another order would redistribute those effects while leaving the total marked change unchanged for the same endpoints.

Worked hypothetical example

Suppose two LST units initially represent one underlying unit each, with the underlying priced at $100 and no market discount. Initial value is $200. If the underlying rises to $120, value becomes $240. A conversion rate increase to 1.1 then raises backing-based value to $264. Applying a final 10% market discount gives $237.60. Contributions are therefore plus $40 from price, plus $24 from conversion and minus $26.40 from discount, totaling plus $37.60.

Interpret the scenarios and limits

The conversion rate is user-supplied and does not establish redemption timing or a guaranteed claim at that value. Wrapping conventions, rebasing balances, fees, slashing and withdrawal mechanics differ across staking products. This model keeps LST quantity fixed, so it does not separately model distributions or balance rebases. A negative discount represents a premium within the allowed range. No token contract, staking account, market price or live withdrawal quote is fetched or inferred from the scenario.

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